What we achieved

Soon we’ll close the books and submit our final report to the Federal Election Commission. Before we report to them, I want to report to you. After all, this was your campaign, fueled by your efforts; I was just your spokesman. So you deserve an accounting of my stewardship of your contributions of time, money, and heart. Here’s a quick outline of what we accomplished.

Efforts:

Raised $2,148,929 from 5,574 donors, ranking among the top 15 Republican challengers nationwide.
Earned A-list endorsements: Club for Growth; Rudy Giuliani; Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association; Mike Huckabee; National Federation of Independent Business; National Tax-Limitation Committee; Mitt Romney; San Joaquin Farm Bureau Federation; U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Moved the district from “Likely Democratic” to “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-up” (Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg) to “Leans Republican” (RealClearPolitics, Larry Sabato).
Organized a massive ground operation, with 1,169 general-election volunteers making 324,098 telephone calls and knocking on over 85,000 doors.

Results:

The morning after the election, I led by one one-hundredth of one percent: 23 votes out of 240,000 cast. At the time, it was the closest House race in the nation.
Not until three weeks after the election did the Associated Press call the race. It was the second-to-last House race in the nation to be called.
Not until four weeks after the election did we get a complete count: Jerry McNerney 115,361 (48%); David Harmer 112,703 (47%).
No challenger of either party in any district in California came closer to defeating an incumbent.

The California Catastrophe

We had to swim against a powerful undertow. The Republican wave that washed across the rest of the country vanished at the California border, where it encountered a countervailing Democratic current. In a year when Republicans gained 63 seats net in the U.S. House of Representatives, we gained none from California — even though California’s 53 seats constitute over 12% of the House.

To put that in perspective … had California behaved like the rest of the nation, Republicans would have gained 9 congressional seats here. Instead, we gained 0. Mine was the only race where a challenger nearly triumphed. In the 20th District, Andy Vidak lost to Jim Costa by 4%; in the 47th District, Van Tran lost to Loretta Sanchez by 14%. All other challengers fared worse.

Of the nine statewide races — Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Controller, Treasurer, Attorney General, Insurance Commissioner, Superintendent of Public Instruction, and U.S. Senator — Republicans lost all nine, eight of them by double-digit margins. Carly Fiorina lost her race for Senate by 10 percentage points. Meg Whitman lost her race for governor by 13.

Likewise, Republicans lost ground in the state legislature, retaining only 29 of the 80 seats in the state Assembly. Two of the top targeted Assembly races overlapped the 11th Congressional District, so we had hoped for a boost from down-ticket. But on the East Bay side of the district, Abram Wilson lost his Assembly race by nearly 7 points, and in the San Joaquin Valley, Jack Sieglock lost his by over 9.

We Needed Prop. 14

“Democrats poured wads of cash into anti-Harmer ads in the 11th District in the final week,” reported Lisa Vorderbrueggen of the Contra Costa Times, “which probably spurred their voters to show up at the polls.” Even so, the incumbent couldn’t muster a majority. We held him to 48%. He won only because a third-party spoiler split the anti-incumbent vote. As Carolyn Lochhead of the San Francisco Chronicle noted:

A third party spoiler, Tracy's David Christensen of the conservative American Independent Party, has … 5.1%.
…
It would appear that Harmer would have won had Christensen not been in the race.

Joe Eskenazi of SF Weekly reached the same conclusion, writing of Christensen, “McNerney can send him some flowers.”

Christensen was never a serious candidate. He raised no money, assembled no organization, gave no interviews, and showed up for no forums or debates, save one in his hometown — where he responded to predictable questions by confessing his perplexity. He hadn’t the remotest prospect of winning, or even influencing public opinion. The only effect of his candidacy was to facilitate the re-election of an incumbent whose views were diametrically opposed to his own.

California voters approved Proposition 14 last June precisely to prevent candidates like Christensen from muddying the general-election waters. Under Prop. 14, all candidates from all parties appear on the same primary ballot, and only the top two vote-getters (regardless of party) proceed to the runoff. It’s an eminently sensible system. Naturally, all the state’s political parties opposed it.

Had Proposition 14 been in effect last year, Christensen could not have appeared on the general-election ballot, and I likely would have won. Unfortunately, Prop. 14 didn’t take effect until this year. But for future elections, the Prop. 14 system, operating in districts drawn by the new independent commission instead of incumbent officeholders, will give voters a clean, up-or-down choice between status-quo incumbents and challengers like me.

As we look forward, that’s one good reason for hope.

Appreciation

Since my concession, hundreds of supporters have sent messages of appreciation and encouragement. I’ve shared those with my family, reassuring them of the worth of our efforts over the past two years. Candidacy had its burdens, but also its blessings. Foremost among the latter are our friendships with people like you.

Notwithstanding our loss, the campaign’s performance was impressive — especially in California’s hostile electoral environment. Elayne joins me in thanking you for bringing us so close to victory. For each of our hundreds of volunteers, thousands of donors, and tens of thousands of voters, we are grateful.

Yours truly,

David Harmer

David Harmer was the Republican nominee for the U.S. House of Representatives from California’s 10th District in 2009 and the 11th District in 2010. His father, John Harmer, served as Lieutenant Governor under Ronald Reagan.

Early in his career, David served as counsel to a subcommittee of the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee. He took his expertise in constitutional law to Pacific Legal Foundation, where he defended property rights and other freedoms. David was also a Resident Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, and his book on education reform was published by the Cato Institute. The National Republican Congressional Committee named David a ”Young Gun“ — the top status in their candidate rating system.